One For the Bean Counters

Hearing more about the deal, what was gained?

Current residents:
For Preferential Rate Tenants: Nothing.
Preferential Rate Affected By Roberts: Some protections probably because they meet or exceed destabilization standards and would be at risk when j-51 benefits expire in 2020 (looks like Blackstone won't renew J-51).
Legal Rent Tenants:  Nothing.  They're protected by rent stabilization.

The case can be made that the playground and green spaces are protected.  Not sure everyone believes they would ever be at risk given the community outcry and political reactions that would occur if they were threatened.

Posterity:

Well, it's hard to say.  It all depends on turnover here.  Right now there are about 5500 'affordable' units.  We're told these were turning over at the rate of 300/yr.  Does anyone believe that all 5500 would have turned over in 20 yrs?  At  most perhaps 1/2 of them would have turned over so at most perhaps 2500 units remain are kept affordable.  But I seriously doubt the number is that high.

Remember, STPCV was put up in 1946 to house returning WWII vets who might have been between 21 and 26.  Adding the intervening years,  a lot of these folks probably passed on over the last 10 yrs.  So chances are the mortality rate will drop over the next 20 years.

In addition, an apartment renting now for around $1000/mo.  (and there some of these), after 2 churns in 10 years will rent at $1440/mo.  Or a unit renting at $2000/mo. after 2 churns in 10 years will rent at $2880/mo.  All still affordable in 10 yrs.

So that's why this is one for the statisticians and bean counters...of whom I'm sure Blackstone has many.  The city gave up $225MM in tax and fee revenue and non-repayable loans in order to enable this deal.  Was it worth it?  Only statisticians and bean counters can tell you for sure.  If projected turnover among the 5000 is realistically small and/or if current low rents will stay affordable in 10 to 20 years , the deal is of little or no value to tenancy..

I wouldn't take the word of any politician about the projected worth of this deal.  They're all scrambling to establish their bragging rights on this one.  Only a good statistician would have a handle on it.